A 10Y push toward or through ~5.35% would make this a substantially stronger bearish regime warning for NQ.

Good Morning

Meaningful negative shift in the rates backdrop: the 30-year Treasury yield has just hit a fresh 24-year high at 5.704%, while the 10-year is around 5.32–5.33%, keeping it close to the recent stress highs. This is increasingly a long-end bond selloff rather than simply an October-Fed story: markets still put the probability of an October hike at only about 20–22%, although a December hike remains much more heavily priced. Today’s 10-year Treasury auction and the Fed minutes therefore become important potential volatility triggers. 

Oil is not adding another layer of deterioration for the moment: WTI/CL has slipped back to roughly $89.60, despite continuing Saudi/Houthi and Hormuz risks, as recovered Middle East exports partially offset the supply threat. I found no fresh Nvidia or U.S.-China headline strong enough to counter the rates move; the SpaceX/Nvidia financing story remains supportive for AI demand but is already known. 

Most affected: NQ — negative/caution. The fresh long-bond high increases duration/valuation pressure on AI and growth stocks even without CL breaking higher. My immediate read is NQ: caution / higher reversal risk | ES: constructive-caution | YM: relatively more resilient. A 10Y push toward or through ~5.35% would make this a substantially stronger bearish regime warning for NQ.

See you all at 9:20 am